Why Black Friday Isn’t What It Used to Be

Black Friday used to be retail’s Super Bowl, “last chance” banners everywhere, and overflowing shopping bags. 2025 brought a strange twist to it: consumers feel worse than ever… and yet, they’re still spending. Just not the way brands expect.

Welcome to the Black Friday Paradox: a world where shoppers are anxious, selective, and more value-driven than any time in the last decade.

Everyone Feels Broke, But Not Everyone Is Buying Like It

Consumer sentiment is practically in the basement. Surveys show shoppers say they plan to spend less, worry more, and wait for promotions. And yes, the average planned holiday spend is projected to dip slightly this year.

But here’s the plot twist: actual spending data tells a more complex story.

Some households (especially higher-income ones) are shopping like nothing’s wrong. Strong markets, wage growth, and healthier savings mean the top 10% are powering most of the retail optimism we’re seeing. These shoppers are flying, gifting, dressing up, and buying “little luxuries” like it’s tradition.

Meanwhile, the other 90%? They’re tightening their budgets, trading down, and waiting for strategic moments like Black Friday to stretch their wallets. Essentials first, everything else negotiable.

This split explains why the mood feels bad, but the numbers look fine.

People Aren’t Buying Less, They’re Buying Smarter

All consumers, rich or not, care about one thing heading into 2026: value. And it means quality that justifies the price.

Shoppers are tired of disposable trends, tired of trick discounts, and tired of feeling tricked by promotions that were never real. They’ll pay; but they want transparency, craftsmanship, longevity, relevance. They want stories that land and products that deliver.

The brands winning right now have one thing in common: they make their value clear without shouting.

In luxury, the stakes are even higher. With players like SSENSE, Saks, and LuisaViaRoma facing turbulence, the rest of the market is scrambling to capture their top-spending clients. Clienteling has become a competitive sport, stylists are being poached like free agents, and vendors are forming tighter, faster partnerships to win loyalty before someone else does.

Today’s affluent shopper isn’t buying mindlessly. They’re buying where they feel aligned with the story, the service, and the value. For premium-to-luxury brands, this is the moment to lean into intentional storytelling, thoughtful product drops, flawless service, and pricing that communicates worth rather than desperation. Emotional resonance matters more than ever, even at the top end of the market.

The New Retail Mindset: Make Your Value Unmistakable

Whether someone is spending $40 or $4,000, the rules have converged: show them exactly why your product deserves its price tag. Discounts don’t do that work anymore, clarity does. Brands need sharp pricing architecture, elevated narratives, and positioning that feels confident and coherent. When communication is strong, shoppers understand the value instantly; when it's muddled, the price becomes the problem.

What This Means for Brands in 2026

This year’s Black Friday cycle made one thing obvious: the old playbook is finished. Today’s consumer is overwhelmed, cautious, and highly selective. They don’t respond to noise, they respond to relevance. They buy when a brand makes sense, not when it screams.

The winners of 2026 will be the brands that understand the selective spender mindset, articulate their value with precision, curate their assortment with discipline, price with integrity, and communicate with emotional clarity rather than panic.